Canada’s Food Price Report (CFPR) 2026 forecasts that overall food prices will increase by 4% to 6%. The average family of four is expected to spend $17,571.79, an increase of up to $994.63 from last year.
Food prices are 27% higher than they were five years ago. Annual food price increases are currently within the range predicted in the 2025 report (4%), however meat increased at a faster rate than predicted (5% to 7%). Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Quebec are forecasted to experience food price increases above the national average next year.
This marks the 16th edition of Canada’s Food Price Report (CFPR), an annual publication produced collaboratively by Dalhousie University, Saint Mary’s University, University of Prince Edward Island, Cape Breton University, the University of Guelph, Université Laval, the University of British Columbia, and the University of Saskatchewan. The report provides readers with predictions on estimated annual food expenditures based on age/gender to improve their personal and household budgeting. The 2026 edition of CFPR used one broad, systemized approach to forecasting, employing a suite of predictive analysis models that factored in key regressors (such as climate change and geopolitical information).
What Can Canadians Can Expect in 2026?
* Inflation is likely to further decrease, settling around 2% and holding steady. Canadian GDP growth will continue to slow to approximately 1.2% to 1.4%.
• The US trade dispute is ongoing, although a recent rollback of tariffs on more than 200 agricultural and food products is a promising pivot.
• The TFWP reforms could lead to labor shortages, and the agricultural industry relies heavily on seasonal workers. This could increase costs for businesses already operating on tight margins, with those extra costs being passed onto customers.
• The One Canadian Economy Act passed in July 2025 should stimulate trade between provinces, reduce costs, encourage labour mobility, and strengthen domestic competition.
• The Grocery Code of Conduct becomes fully operational in January 2026. It remains to be seen if it will be effectively enforced. The top four grocery chains control at least 72% of the national market share.
• As of January , 2026 it will be mandatory for all food that surpasses a pre-determined threshold for sodium, sugar, and saturated fat to include front-of-pack labelling. This will help consumers make better choices and could encourage product innovation. Also, Health Canada mandated that by December 31st, 2025 dairy milk must be fortified with nearly double its current amount of Vitamin D.
• Chicken prices are set to rise substantially. Customer demand for poultry products has increased due to the higher cost of beef. Canada has strengthened beef import partnerships with Mexico and Australia. This should help stabilize prices, but the squeeze is expected to continue until at least 2027.
• Increasingly severe and unpredictable weather events around the globe will continue to disrupt agricultural production, creating supply challenges.
