Projecting that global population will rise to nearly 10 billion by 2050, a recently published report by the World Resources Institute (WRI) has concluded that the international food system must undergo major changes to ensure there is adequate food to nourish mankind in the years ahead. Among adjustments advocated is increased planting and harvesting of genetic modified crops.
The 564-page study, entitled World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, maintains that meeting this challenge will require closing three gaps:
- A 56 percent “food gap” between what was produced in 2010 and food that will be needed in 2050
- A nearly 600 million-hectare “land gap” (an area nearly twice the size of India) between global agricultural land area in 2010 and expected agricultural expansion by 2050
- An 11-gigaton “greenhouse gas mitigation gap” between expected emissions from agriculture in 2050 and the level needed to meet the Paris Agreement.
“Millions of farmers, companies, consumers and every government on the planet will have to make changes to meet the global food challenge. At every level, the food system must be linked to climate strategies as well as ecosystem protections and economic prosperity,” said Andrew Steer, president and chief executive officer of the Washington, DC-headquartered WRI. “While the scale of the challenge is bigger than is often thought, the solutions we’ve identified have greater potential than many realize. There’s reason to be hopeful we can achieve a sustainable food future.”
“The opportunity to transform the food system should not be ignored. Rewarding farmers for producing more diverse and nutritious foods in a much more sustainable manner will help increase their incomes and create jobs, build healthier societies, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support the recovery of essential ecosystem services,” said Laura Tuck, vice president for sustainable development at the World Bank. “Public funding should be examined and if need be, redesigned, to support more sustainable use of natural resources and better align food production with countries’ sustainable development goals.”
What’s on the Menu
Produced by WRI in partnership with the World Bank, UN Environment, UN Development Programme, and the French agricultural research agencies CIRAD and INRA, the report outlines a five-course menu of solutions to overhaul the way the world produces and consumes food to ensure a sustainable food system by 2050, as follows:
- Reduce growth in demand by cutting food loss and waste, eating healthier diets, and mor
- Increase food production without expanding agricultural land area via yield gains for both crops and livestock
- Protect and restore natural ecosystems by reducing deforestation, restoring peat lands, and linking yield gains with ecosystem conservation
- Increase fish supply by improving aquaculture systems and better managing wild fisheries
- Reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production through innovative technologies and farming methods.
Many of the report’s findings use the new GlobAgri-WRR model (designed by CIRAD in partnership with INRA), which quantifies how far each “menu item” can help to increase the availability of food, avoid deforestation, and reduce GHG emissions. The report also identifies a robust series of policies, innovations, and incentives that can take the solutions to scale.
Innovation Will Pave the Way
There is no realistic potential to create a sustainable food future without major innovations,” said Tim Searchinger, senior fellow at WRI and lead author of the report. “Industry is already creating exciting breakthroughs like feeds that suppress the formation of methane in cows’ stomachs. We need both more funding for research and development, and flexible regulations to give the private sector incentives to innovate.”
“This report is clear on what’s happening in the food system and the transformations we urgently need to make. One theme that’s evident is how much the location of agricultural land is shifting, both between and within countries and regions. This shift is making the food and climate challenge tougher to solve. As a result, the world needs to better link efforts to boost agricultural yields with protection of forests and other natural lands,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of the UN Environment Programme.
Shifting consumption patterns, increasing the productivity of crops and livestock, and improving the efficiency of inputs like fertilizers can significantly reduce emissions and the demand for land while raising agricultural incomes. To hold global warming below a 1.5°C increase above preindustrial levels would require doing this and everything else on the five-course menu of solutions, plus reforesting more than 585 million hectares (1.4 billion acres) made available by these demand- and supply-side efficiency gains.
“This report’s call to action can be summed up in three words: Produce, Protect, Prosper. These are not competing interests,” said Achim Steiner, administrator of UN Development Programme. “It’s possible to produce more food on the same amount of agricultural land as today, protect ecosystems, and do this in a manner that ensures farmers and others can prosper. Creating a sustainable food future won’t be easy – but it can be done.”
The new report contains the complete findings that underpin the synthesis of Creating a Sustainable Food Future, which was released in December 2018 at COP24 in Poland.
Read World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future by visiting: www.SustainableFoodFuture.org